Netizen Weekly | Bitcoin Market Update #14
SIGNAL CHANGE: Global Markets Are Officially RISK-ON
Market Momentum Trumps Economic Risks
The global market regime has shifted from DEFLATION to GOLDILOCKS (higher growth, lower inflation), with Bitcoin notably leading this risk-on rotation by turning BEARISH to NEUTRAL on April 14th and NEUTRAL to BULLISH on April 28th, well before the S&P 500 even managed to reach NEUTRAL momentum on April 30th. This regime favors risk assets like Bitcoin and equities despite Wall Street consensus still pricing in a 40-60% recession probability—a powerful reminder that markets can dislocate from fundamentals when sentiment shifts. A potential tariff-driven inflation shock could accelerate the transition to a REFLATION regime (higher growth, higher inflation) in coming months, which historically remains supportive for Bitcoin and stocks. Or a tariff-driven growth shock could break us down into STAGFLATION, a risk-off regime where Bitcoin and stocks historically underperform. Current price action appears to be dismissing recessionary risks despite weak consumer and corporate sentiment, reinforcing the long-held axiom that "the market is always right" and fighting price trends based on fundamental conviction alone is a dangerous game. Animal spirits have awakened as investors begin positioning for growth over liquidity concerns, teaching the critical lesson that while policy missteps and tariff growth shocks remain genuine risks, sometimes you simply need to take what the market gives you.
TLDR: Bitcoin's early pivot to bullish signals it remains the leading indicator for risk assets—follow the momentum, not the headlines.
🔒 PREMIUM INSIGHT: Our Dynamic DCA model flipped bullish on April 26th when on-chain momentum turned positive, providing premium subscribers a precise entry signal weeks before the broader market caught on.
Room to Run: Not Yet in Bubble Territory
With Bitcoin breaking above $100K and approaching all-time highs, many investors are rightfully questioning whether the market has become overextended. The AVIV Ratio measures active supply relative to investor holdings, giving greater weight to older coins moving (as they statistically represent stronger "diamond hands" that rarely sell). The AVIV Z-score of 0.91 places Bitcoin at the 79th percentile of historical valuations, positioning it in the second-highest of five valuation bands but still below the speculative threshold of 1.25. This elevated but not extreme reading coincides with positive on-chain momentum that turned favorable on April 26th, followed by bullish trending momentum on April 28th, all within the newly established risk-on Goldilocks market regime. Bitcoin's current valuation suggests room for continued upside while warranting increased vigilance as prices advance further into the upper quintile of historical readings.
TLDR: Bitcoin's upper quintile valuation still has room to expand higher amid favorable momentum and market conditions.
$100K: From Ceiling to Floor
Recent supply dynamics reveal significant buying clusters at the $92-97K and $102-105K price levels, creating a protective band around the psychologically important $100K threshold. The emerging demand at $102-105K is particularly supportive for Bitcoin's recent upward impulse, signaling clear institutional appetite at these elevated levels. The largest 30-day net selling of 167K BTC occurred around $98K, near the short-term holder cost basis of $94K, indicating strategic profit-taking at resistance before the breakout. While older coins purchased at $8-10K and $57-62K ranges have also come to market, this distribution pattern is entirely normal and healthy as long-term holders typically harvest some gains when Bitcoin approaches all-time highs. This classic bull market behavior – where smart money accumulates during breakouts while allowing some profit-taking – reinforces the strength and sustainability of the current uptrend.
TLDR: Strong buying above $100K transforms this psychological barrier into durable support.
Sharks Feast While Retail Distributes
Sharks holding 100-1K BTC have aggressively accumulated +90.7K Bitcoin over the past month, emerging as the only cohort in net accumulation while all other investor classes reduced exposure. Both Whales (1-10K BTC) and Mega-Whales & Exchanges (>10K BTC) have been net sellers, distributing -13.5K and -50.9K BTC respectively, while retail investors collectively reduced positions by approximately 9K BTC. This institutional-driven market is concerning from a philosophical perspective – Bitcoin was designed as a grassroots technology to democratize finance, not to become another asset dominated by financial institutions. As retail investors, we should resist selling our Bitcoin to hedge funds, banks, and public companies, instead maintaining ownership to preserve the decentralized ethos that gives Bitcoin its revolutionary potential. This newsletter exists precisely to help everyday investors accumulate Bitcoin intelligently, encouraging friends, family and readers to own and save in BTC rather than ceding control to the very institutions Bitcoin was created to disintermediate. The wealth transfer opportunity remains significant for retail investors who position themselves ahead of widespread institutional adoption, making strategic accumulation at current levels a potentially generational opportunity.
TLDR: Don't surrender your Bitcoin to Wall Street—institutional accumulation signals retail's narrowing window for strategic positioning.
Thanks for reading this week's note! See you next week – and as always, hit reply if you have any questions, comments, or suggestions!
Take care -Brian
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.