Netizen Weekly | Bitcoin Market Update #21
Why Bitcoin All-Time Highs Are Inevitable
Goldilocks Powers Bitcoin Higher
We remain in a top-down GOLDILOCKS market regime where Bitcoin, the S&P 500, and Gold maintain BULLISH momentum while equity (VIX) and bond (MOVE) volatility are trending BEARISH, signaling investors are underinvested and unhedged. As we said on Monday, Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) passed into law creates the foundation for our Everything Rally thesis, locking the US government into a 7% of GDP deficit for the foreseeable future. In our view, the recent tariff announcements from President Trump represent more noise than signal and encourage dip buying as risk assets trend higher and volatility trends lower. This fiscal dominance setup forces the Fed into financial repression where rates stay below inflation, creating structural US dollar weakness that benefits Bitcoin and other assets. Looking ahead, Trump's likely appointment of a dovish Fed chair combined with incoming US economic strength creates a classic "melt-up" setup where future rate cuts and government spending will fuel further asset price appreciation.
TLDR: A weaker US dollar, fiscal stimulus, and lower interest rates create the perfect macro conditions for Bitcoin and stocks to melt up.
Bears Crushed in $115M Liquidation Wave
Bitcoin’s quick move to $112K was powered by ~$115M in short liquidations, marking another decisive victory for the bulls in this macro-driven rally. The last event this large was in May 2025, when $195M in shorts were wiped as Bitcoin ripped from $94K to $104K. The ongoing tug-of-war between alternating bursts of long- and short-side wipeouts shows traders are still hunting for direction, but the price clearly favors continued upside. With shorts capitulating and spot buyers cleaning up supply, Bitcoin is positioned to benefit directly from the fiscal tailwinds driving our Everything Rally thesis.
TLDR: $115M in short liquidations powered the breakout, with capitulating bears clearing the path for continued upside.
Bitcoin's $100K Floor Sets Stage for Breakout
A dense ownership band spans $93K to $109K, but above that level, price sits in "rare air" with little historical supply to provide meaningful resistance. Below $95K down to approximately $82K-$85K, supply lightens but isn't completely empty, providing plenty of opportunity for buyers to step in. Meanwhile, the Short-Term Holder cost basis has surged to $100K, creating a formidable psychological and technical floor that reinforces the bullish structure. This supply distribution perfectly complements the macro setup with sparse overhead supply meeting fiscal dominance and and lower future interest rates, creating ideal conditions for Bitcoin to extend its breakout to new all-time highs.
TLDR: Dense ownership below $109K creates strong support while sparse supply above offers minimal resistance, with $100K cost basis anchoring the floor.
Thanks for reading this week's note! See you next week – and as always, hit reply if you have any questions, comments, or suggestions!
Take care -Brian
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.