Why Bitcoin Matters More Than Ever
Today's note is fully focused on macro because we have some new subscribers, and I want to remind everyone why Bitcoin is so historically important. With cost of living rising and many people feeling trapped like they can't build wealth, understanding this bigger picture becomes crucial. While we normally focus on tactical calls, this refresher is worth it—without understanding the fundamentals, it's difficult to take confident action. Everything discussed here isn't hype or speculation; it's grounded in generations of historical evidence. Currency debasement has been the government playbook since ancient times, from Roman emperors clipping silver coins to Weimar Germany printing wheelbarrows of worthless marks, and the United States is no different.
TLDR: Every government in history has chosen to debase their currency rather than default—America won't be different, making Bitcoin (and other hard assets) the ultimate hedge against this inevitable outcome.
The $36 Trillion Trap: Why America Can't Escape
Just like every empire before it, the United States has reached the point where its debts have grown faster than the economy. Federal debt now exceeds $36 trillion—that's 122% of its GDP—with interest payments alone approaching $1 trillion per year. Think about that: we're spending nearly as much on interest as we do on our entire military budget. Politicians can't reasonably cut defense because of national security (China, Russia, North Korea, etc.) and can't touch Social Security or Medicare (political suicide), so they're left with the same choice every overextended government faces: default and collapse, or quietly steal from savers through inflation. History shows us they always choose to steal, and America is no different—they're just better at disguising it.
TLDR: When governments face impossible math, they always choose inflation over collapse—making Bitcoin's fixed 21 million supply the perfect escape valve for savers.
The 2025 Playbook: How the Government Takes Your Wealth
Here's where the history lesson gets modern—today's wealth transfer is much more sophisticated than ancient Rome's coin clipping. Trump's tariff strategy, including the recent "One Big Beautiful Bill," essentially taxes everything you buy while using that revenue to fund massive fiscal spending to support a K-shaped economy (asset holders benefit while workers lose purchasing power), which keeps the debt growing. Meanwhile, there's a public conflict between Trump's big-spending plans and Federal Reserve Chair Powell's attempts to maintain higher interest rates to fight inflation. The Trump administration is simultaneously creating legislation to force crypto companies to back stablecoins with Treasury bills because other countries don’t want our debt anymore, creating a system where private companies will be coerced into financing government deficits. This is financial engineering at its finest—they're trapping your savings in a system designed to lose purchasing power while making it nearly impossible to escape into truly scarce assets.
TLDR: The more sophisticated the government's financial engineering becomes, the more valuable Bitcoin's censorship-resistant, mathematically scarce properties become.
What To Do: Learning From History's Winners
Knowing this context is useless unless you act on it—and the playbook for protecting yourself is actually pretty straightforward. You want to own things that maintain their value when governments debase currency: physical gold, Bitcoin, real estate, energy assets, and businesses that generate cash flow (whether private companies or dividend-paying stocks). The key is owning assets that either have fixed supply (like Bitcoin's 21 million cap) or pricing power that adjusts with inflation, rather than paper promises that lose purchasing power by design. If you're older and closer to retirement, lean heavier into gold and real estate for stability; if you're younger with time to ride out volatility, Bitcoin offers the highest upside as the hardest money ever created. I recommend this to all my friends and family: the majority of your net worth should be in this mix of hard assets—think of it as an insurance policy against unchecked government spending.
TLDR: History's winners owned things governments couldn't print—today Bitcoin represents one of purest forms of that strategy with its absolute scarcity and global accessibility.
I hope you enjoyed today’s big picture note. Next week we’ll go back to more on-chain data for Bitcoin. Let me know what you think of today’s topic.
Godspeed!
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.