Netizen Premium | Bitcoin Deep Dive #2

Momentum Fading At $94K: Institutional Adoption Continues But Is There Enough Demand To Support Current Prices?

Liquidity Tailwinds Support Risk Assets Despite Growth Concerns

The current REFLATION regime continues to support risk assets as debt limit dynamics boost liquidity conditions. With the Treasury's "extraordinary measures" nearing exhaustion, we expect at least $500bn of Treasury General Account (TGA) spenddown through early summer—this means more money flowing into the financial system as the Treasury spends down its cash reserves. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is approaching "ample" reserve levels, suggesting they may end their balance sheet reduction program this summer or sooner, which would provide additional support for asset prices. Bitcoin's Volatility Adjusted Momentum Oscillator (VAMO) remains BULLISH, aligning with this supportive macro backdrop.

However, preliminary February economic data and New York Fed Services Survey results indicate a slowdown in the US economy amid elevated policy uncertainty surrounding President Trump's economic agenda. Core inflation pressures remain sticky, with service sector businesses reporting continued price increases in February, suggesting the Federal Reserve may need to maintain restrictive policy longer than markets currently expect.

TLDR: Asset markets are currently RISK-ON due to liquidity conditions, however growth concerns and sticky inflation give us caution on Bitcoin’s outlook.

Dynamic DCA Model: Warning Signs Emerge Despite Maintained Signal