Netizen Premium | Bitcoin Deep Dive #19

Is Fed Independence Dead?

Why Trump Wants Powell Gone

The Fed's June Summary of Economic Projections delivered a telling recalibration, revising core PCE inflation forecasts higher to 3.1%, 2.4%, and 2.1% for 2025-2027, up from previous guidance of 2.8%, 2.2%, and 2.0%. After seven years since 2020, the Fed is essentially admitting it cannot return to its 2% target, implicitly signaling an eventual shift toward higher inflation tolerance. This comes as crude oil has flipped to BULLISH momentum amid escalating Israel-Iran conflict, creating inflationary pressures that further complicate the Fed's mandate. Meanwhile, Trump's Truth Social posts continue attacking Jerome Powell while demanding 1-2% interest rates to save $1 trillion annually on debt service costs. The Federal Reserve's supposed independence is under direct political assault, yet markets aren't pricing the likelihood of a significantly more dovish Fed chair replacement next year. To be clear: a Fed co-opted by the U.S. government would be bullish for asset prices, and bearish for the U.S. dollar.

TLDR: Trump's public attacks on Powell combined with the Fed's admission that 2% inflation is impossible creates the perfect setup for a dovish Fed pivot in the future.

Why The Market Will Melt-Up

The U.S. faces an inescapable debt trilemma with only three solutions: cut spending (no political will), outgrow the debt (requires sustained inflation above 2%), or money printing (weakens USD). Trump's proposed $3 trillion One Big Beautiful Bill Act represents massive fiscal spending designed to help America outgrow its debt crisis through tax breaks and corporate subsidies that will likely boost economic growth while worsening wealth inequality and inflating asset prices. We are undoubtedly in the middle of a Fourth Turning Crisis, a 80-100 year generational cycle where institutions are torn down and rebuilt amid intense collective struggle, following the American Revolution, Civil War, and Great Depression-WWII eras. History shows us that during these periods, prices rise, old institutions fall, and many people get left behind. Investors must position themselves to protect wealth by owning real assets like Bitcoin, businesses, stocks, and real estate rather than betting on U.S. dollar supremacy.

TLDR: We believe we are living through a Fourth Turning polycrisis that will inevitably end with a weaker currency, and higher asset prices. Position accordingly.

Below, we’ll dive into our Dynamic DCA model that supports our Bitcoin investment strategy, including on-chain risks we see emerging: