Netizen Premium | Bitcoin Deep Dive #21

Why Trump's OBBBA Will Fuel The Everything Rally

Goldilocks Economy Sets Perfect Stage

Before the holiday weekend, the June labor market report crushed expectations with 147K jobs added versus 106K consensus, driving unemployment down to 4.1% and confirming our GOLDILOCKS market regime. With the S&P 500 pushing above $6,250 and Bitcoin holding near $109K, markets reflect this perfect backdrop of growth without inflation panic. Wage growth cooling to 3.7% removed stagflationary fears, especially with geopolitical risks from Israel-Iran now contained. This economic resilience provides the ideal foundation for risk assets to absorb any short-term turbulence. With the labor market humming and inflation contained, markets are now ready to digest Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

TLDR: The existing Goldilocks conditions create the perfect RISK-ON setup for Bitcoin to rally on fiscal policy shifts.

Trump's OBBBA Triggers Currency Debasement Supercycle

The passage of Trump's OBBBA will lock the US government into spending $7 trillion annually against $5 trillion in revenue, cementing a structural 7% of GDP deficit for the foreseeable future. This arithmetic pushes debt-to-GDP from 100% to 130% within a decade while interest payments alone will balloon from $1 trillion to $2 trillion annually by the mid-2030s. When governments face this debt trap, history shows three options: painful austerity, catastrophic default, or financial repression through fiscal dominance. Trump's OBBBA makes the third path inevitable—the Fed will be forced to keep rates below inflation to help Treasury refinance cheaply, effectively printing money to fund the shortfall. This represents the largest structured wealth transfer from bond holders to asset owners in modern U.S. history.

TLDR: OBBBA is evidence of US policy succumbing to fiscal dominance, making Bitcoin the premier hedge against systematic dollar debasement.

The Everything Rally Is Inevitable

The US dollar will structurally decline as the Treasury finances massive deficits while the Fed engineers financial repression to keep borrowing costs manageable. Financial assets like the S&P 500, Gold, and Bitcoin maintain BULLISH momentum alongside real assets including real estate, commodities, and infrastructure as investors flee negative-yielding cash. Foreign holders will increasingly dump US Treasuries as real yields turn negative, forcing domestic monetization and accelerating capital rotation into tangible assets. This broad-based asset appreciation extends beyond markets to housing costs, energy prices, and everyday goods as the purchasing power of dollars gradually erodes. When the Fed creates new money to buy government bonds and keep interest rates artificially low, that liquidity flows into every other asset class as people seek returns above inflation.

TLDR: US dollar weakness from fiscal dominance creates the ultimate tailwind for Bitcoin's push above all-time highs.

Below we’ll go into what the on-chain data is showing us, as well as review our Dynamic Dollar Cost Averaging model: