Netizen Premium | Bitcoin Deep Dive #20

Why Bitcoin's $108K Is Just The Beginning

Bitcoin & Stocks Ignore The War

With the S&P 500 at $6,200 and Bitcoin above $108K, global markets continue to signal a GOLDILOCKS regime with equity volatility and bond volatility both showing BEARISH momentum as markets clearly don't care about the Israel-Iran conflict. Oil just broke down from BULLISH to NEUTRAL momentum, removing the threat of energy-driven STAGFLATION that could trigger a temporary RISK-OFF regime. Despite being near all-time highs, the technical picture suggests this risk-on environment has plenty of room to run. Systematic funds remain underweight risk assets while institutional positioning sits far below the extremes that typically mark major tops. This isn't a market looking for an excuse to crash, it's a market that may actually melt up instead.

TLDR: The market remains risk-on despite geopolitical concerns, setting the stage for Bitcoin's continued strength.

The Government Wants Easy Money

If passed, Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill would unleash $3 trillion in fiscal spending that would likely benefit the owner class, including stocks and Bitcoin. Trillions in tax cuts combined with financial deregulation could trigger a positive growth shock that Wall Street consensus has not fully priced in. The administration is trying to engineer an economic boom to outrun America's debt crisis while Fed Chair Jerome Powell faces political pressure from President Trump to cut rates despite current sub-20% market odds. The President publicly demanded 2-3 percentage points lower rates and will likely appoint a dovish Fed Chair in the coming quarters. Expect more debt, more spending, and more asset inflation as the wealth gap widens and financial assets absorb the printed money.

TLDR: Fiscal dominance (Trump’s OBBBA) + easy monetary policy (a new dovish Fed Chair) = Asset inflation

Is The USD In A Bear Market?

Our long-standing thesis that the US dollar will enter a secular bear market is beginning to show signs. With the US dollar now trading inversely with currency volatility, the market is now treating the dollar like a risk asset, as opposed to a safe-haven currency. After breaking below 2023 lows, the dollar faces virtually no technical support until the May 2021 lows of ~90 (DXY). This structural dollar weakness is a massive tailwind for corporate profits that Wall Street consensus is underestimating, with ~40% of S&P 500 revenue coming from abroad. Every percentage point the US dollar falls translates directly into higher revenues and earnings for American multinationals when they convert foreign sales back to dollars. As we have discussed in the past, Fourth Turnings often feature fiscal dominance, and Trump's OBBBA passing would practically guarantee US dollar weakness.

TLDR: A secular US dollar bear market driven by fiscal dominance would be extremely bullish for stocks and Bitcoin.

Below we’ll go into which on-chain metrics confirm Bitcoin's policy-driven supercycle and any risks we should be aware of: