Netizen Premium | Bitcoin Deep Dive #52
War Breaks Out & Markets Shrug
The Market Refused to Break
US and Israeli forces struck Iran on Saturday. Tehran retaliated within hours, Gulf airspace closed, and gold and crude spiked in the immediate aftermath. But equities didn’t break, and that’s the most important data point of the week. A market that shrugs at coordinated strikes on a major oil-producing nation is telling you something about the underlying bid. Earlier in the week, NVIDIA posted a blowout quarter and still sold off 2%, confirming that big tech is now a source of funds for the rest of the market rather than a destination for fresh capital. Tariff uncertainty, a State of the Union that glossed over a real affordability crisis, and an active military conflict all landed in the same five-day window. Risk held through all of it. Investors are rotating, not retreating, and that distinction matters for the current market setup.
TLDR: War, tariffs, and a confusing earnings week all hit at once and risk held anyway, which tells you the underlying bid is strong enough to support a move higher in hard assets.
Policymakers Have One Path Left
The 12-month outlook remains bullish. Policymakers are betting on outgrowing the debt problem through fiscal, monetary, and regulatory tailwinds, and that thesis looks credible through 2026 and 2027. Inflation is the friction. Core PCE is running in the high 2s to low 3s, Treasury yields rose this week as markets priced out Fed cuts, and reflationary signals out of Japan are exporting additional yield pressure globally. War compounds all of this. Armed conflict consumes capital, disrupts supply chains, and historically accelerates the timeline toward monetary expansion. Cutting spending is a political non-starter heading into midterms, and so growth is the current regime. Printing is the most likely destination if deficits keep widening and the Treasury market struggles to absorb the supply. That sequencing is the backbone of the Everything Rally Thesis, and this week moved every variable further down that road.
TLDR: Governments can’t cut, won’t stop spending, and war just added more fuel to the fire, and that sequence toward monetary expansion is the most important macro tailwind Bitcoin has.
Bullish Macro, But Bitcoin Lags
Both the top-down global regime model and the bottom-up US macro model are reading Goldilocks: growth is accelerating, inflation is contained enough, and policy is not actively tightening against risk assets. That is as clean a risk-on setup as you can get. The momentum signals reinforce it across the board. The US dollar is in bearish momentum, which is historically a tailwind for assets priced in dollars. Gold remains in bullish momentum, consistent with the geopolitical and reflationary pressures building this week. The S&P 500 is in bullish momentum, but Bitcoin is the outlier. Near-term momentum continues to be bearish, and the upper boundary of the current range sits at $68.8K, a level that converges with the supply wall discussed last week. The macro backdrop is as supportive as it gets. Bitcoin just needs to prove it by clearing and holding $70K.
TLDR: The macro regime is Goldilocks, the US dollar is bearish, gold and stocks are trending up, but Bitcoin continues to lag and $70K is the level that changes that story.
