Netizen Premium | Bitcoin Deep Dive #24

How The Fourth Turning Is Fueling The Everything Rally

Understanding History & Fourth Turnings

For the past several months we've been talking about the Everything Rally, and this week we want to give historical context on what underpins this thesis. It's rooted in the great work from Neil Howe, called the Fourth Turning. Howe's theory divides history into recurring 80-100 year cycles, each containing four generational "turnings": First (High), Second (Awakening), Third (Unraveling), and Fourth (Crisis). According to Howe, we’re currently in a Fourth Turning that began in the late 2000s and will likely extend into the early 2030s, meaning we have roughly 5-10 years remaining in this crisis period. Historically, every Anglo-American Fourth Turning has involved total war or existential crisis, from the American Revolution to the Civil War to World War II, ending in drastic social, economic, and political change. The last Fourth Turning culminated with the 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement establishing the US dollar as the global reserve currency, cementing America's monetary dominance through the post-war recovery.

TLDR: Fourth Turnings have historically created existential crises that forge new economic and political systems, and we believe Bitcoin's moment may be coming.

Why Traditional Investment Rules No Longer Apply

This brings us to the core insight driving the Everything Rally: investors must understand this is a completely different paradigm than anything in recent memory. You cannot apply traditional investment models or valuation frameworks to a once-in-100-year crisis period that ends in a global reordering. What's driving this shift is extreme wealth inequality creating populist pressures from both parties, as the top 1% now controls 32% of total U.S. wealth versus 23% in 1989, and the bottom 50% holds just 2% compared to 4% three decades ago. This inequality forces populism on both sides to drive massive government spending through different channels: Democrats through social programs, and Republicans through tax cuts and infrastructure like President Trump's $3 trillion One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The result is Fiscal Dominance, a regime where political survival requires spending that overwhelms normal economic constraints, making real assets like stocks, gold, real estate, and Bitcoin the logical beneficiaries of this monetary chaos.

TLDR: When populist politics demand endless spending, money flows into real assets that can't be printed away.

The Fed's Impossible Position Fuels Asset Prices

This fiscal dominance regime creates an impossible situation for the Federal Reserve, which directly fuels the Everything Rally we're witnessing across asset classes. Although the Fed is supposed to be independent from government, President Trump is using public and political pressure to force them into Financial Repression, artificially suppressing interest rates below economic fundamentals. This directly compromises the Fed's mandate of price stability by creating persistent inflation, making their 2% target increasingly unachievable. The recently passed GENIUS Act illustrates this desperation perfectly: the US government will now force stablecoin issuers to buy US Treasury debt because even our allies refuse to finance American deficits. This isn't new, as foreign Treasury demand has declined structurally since President Nixon ended the gold standard in 1971, necessitating increasingly creative ways to finance our deficits. With a likely dovish Fed Chair replacing Jerome Powell next year, we expect this dual regime of fiscal dominance and financial repression to supercharge the Everything Rally as investors flee toward real assets while Treasury bonds and the US Dollar enter bear markets.

TLDR: Political pressure will force the Fed into monetary debasement, making Bitcoin the only truly independent store of value.

With the Fourth Turning driving a historic Everything Rally across assets, Bitcoin's institutional adoption accelerates as part of this broader economic revolution toward real monetary alternatives: