Netizen Premium | Bitcoin Deep Dive #15

What Trump's Big Beautiful Bill Means for Bitcoin & Stocks

Fiscal Spending May Overpower Tariff Fears

Since global markets shifted to RISK-ON on May 12, the early returns have favored hard assets over traditional safe havens—Bitcoin is up 6%, while the USD (-2%), S&P 500 (-1%), and long-end bonds (-2%) are all down. That said, we expect stocks and Bitcoin to rally if President Trump's One Big Beautiful Act passes in the Senate, where it's expected to add $3 trillion in federal deficits over the next decade. If this bill gets passed, we expect Trump tariffs and recession fears to be overwhelmed by the incoming fiscal impulse which should benefit economic growth. As a reminder, Bitcoin remains in BULLISH momentum while the USD and S&P 500 are still NEUTRAL. It has been our long-held thesis that governments are addicted to fiscal spending and unwilling to practice austerity to reduce deficits, whether Democrat or Republican, and Trump's Beautiful Bill represents yet another wealth transfer disguised as economic policy.

TLDR: Government spending addiction and refusal to practice fiscal austerity may provide the incremental impulse Bitcoin needs to maintain its bullish price action.

The K-Shaped Economy No One Asked For

This fiscal addiction has already entrenched a K-shaped economy where the top 10% thrived during Biden's presidency while the bottom 10% struggled, and Trump's additional deficit spending will exacerbate this wealth inequality. The reality is that wealthy people account for the bulk of consumer spending, and consumers on the top part of the "K" still have plenty of money to spend, which is why services consumption remains robust despite recession fears. While tariffs have garnered media headlines, the services sector that drives the real economy accounts for 90% of GDP and 86% of employment. As some of you may know, in my day job I own a specialty coaching gym in an affluent area of Brooklyn, and have not seen a slowdown since the beginning of the year despite Q1 recession fears. The US economy is driven by services, and any tailwind from Trump's Big Beautiful Bill will only contribute to a positive growth for stocks and real businesses. When push comes to shove, the government will support the economy and the Fed will support the bond market, whether it be by quantitative easing, lowering interest rates, or raising the inflation target to 3%. We suspect this monetary accommodation will accelerate once Fed Chair Powell is replaced by a Trump appointee in 2026. It is this exact double whammy of fiscal spending and monetary debasement that we expect will act as jet fuel for Bitcoin's core bull case.

TLDR: Government spending will accelerate wealth inequality and structural inflation, making Bitcoin essential for protecting your purchasing power.

In the following Bitcoin section, we'll examine our Dynamic DCA model's latest signals and the critical on-chain data showing where institutional money is flowing at these all-time highs.