Bitcoin Deep Dive #67
Is Bitcoin Bottoming?
The Fed’s Grip Is Slipping
The real change this week came from the macro data, not the chart. The June jobs report landed on the dovish side, with labor demand cooling at the margin and the labor force still shrinking beneath the headline. Fed Chair Warsh has sounded relaxed about inflation, and rate markets took the hint, pricing almost no further tightening and treating monetary policy as much closer to neutral than restrictive. That is the tell. A week ago the debate was whether the Fed still had a reason to lean hawkish. After a softer jobs print and a sanguine Fed, that reason is weaker than ever. While the Fed is not easing, it’s also no longer actively fighting the risk-on regime, and that shift is exactly the backdrop Bitcoin needs to attempt a bottom.
What This Means For Bitcoin: Bitcoin is acting like it may have found a floor, but the bottom is not confirmed unless it holds above the range high and momentum starts to improve
Less Hawkish, Not Yet Dovish
The structural backdrop stays constructive without being clean. Growth, liquidity, AI capex, and procyclical fiscal policy are all still working in favor of risk assets. What is changing is the inflation picture. Oil remains bearish and industrial commodities just broke down to neutral, which takes the air out of any broad, commodity-led inflation scare. That makes the hawkish stance harder to defend. It’s not an all-clear, though. Agricultural commodities are still bullish, labor signals remain mixed, and sticky inflation has not gone away. So the Fed’s problem is quietly shifting from inflation reaccelerating to inflation simply not falling fast enough. That is less hawkish than a fresh shock, but it’s also not dovish. Bitcoin does not need perfect conditions here. It just needs the Fed to stop being so restrictive.
What This Means For Bitcoin: A softer commodity impulse and resilient risk-on backdrop give Bitcoin room to bottom, but sticky inflation still limits how aggressively the Fed can validate the move.
Bitcoin Is Technically Overbought
Putting this all together: markets are still tilted risk-on. REFLATION remains top-down market regime, and GOLDILOCKS is still the exepcted the bottom-up macro regime. Meanwhile, stocks are leading, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and global equities all bullish. Volatility is bearish across equities, bonds, and currencies, which is exactly the environment that rewards taking risk. The U.S. dollar is neutral. Gold, Bitcoin, and Ethereum are all bearish but overbought, oil is bearish, industrial commodities have slipped to neutral, and agricultural commodities remain bullish. Here is the Bitcoin tension: although Bitcoin is still bearish from a volatility perspective, at $63K it’s technically overbought against its expectation volatility range ofr $55.2K to $62.6K. We read this as an overbought bottoming attempt, not a confirmed trend. If Bitcoin is able to hold above $63K for the next week, we would expect a bullish phase transition to neutral momentum.
What This Means For Bitcoin: The volatiliaty signals show Bitcoin is trying to bottom and is technically overbought, but the signal has not flipped from bearish to neutral yet.
The following section is exclusive to Premium subscribers and includes our Dynamic DCA recommendation based on Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics.
